{
  "id": "texas-undocumented-arrests",
  "slug": "immigration-texas",
  "topic": "Immigration",
  "tag": "Immigration & crime",
  "revision": "draft-3",
  "locale": "en",
  "assessment": "Historical finding · research draft",
  "title": "In Texas, undocumented immigrants had lower felony arrest rates than US-born citizens, 2012–2018.",
  "signLines": [
    "Texas, 2012-2018:",
    "Undocumented",
    "immigrants had",
    "lower felony arrest",
    "rates than",
    "US-born citizens."
  ],
  "question": "What does the evidence say about undocumented immigration and crime?",
  "summary": "In Texas, undocumented immigrants had lower rates of arrests for serious violent, property and drug offenses than US-born citizens during 2012–2018. This is a historical finding from one state, not a current national crime rate.",
  "scope": "The study counted felony arrest charges—charges for serious crimes. An arrest is not proof of guilt, and one person can have more than one charge.",
  "geographicScope": {
    "kind": "jurisdiction",
    "countryCodes": [
      "US"
    ],
    "jurisdictionCodes": [
      "US-TX"
    ],
    "note": "Historical Texas direct-status comparison, not nationwide 2026 offending."
  },
  "evidence": [
    {
      "heading": "What the Texas study compared",
      "text": "Researchers linked Texas arrest records with immigration-status information and estimated the size of each population. Undocumented residents had lower felony arrest rates across violent, property and drug offenses. The broad pattern remained when researchers tried other ways of identifying status, estimating population sizes and checking convictions.",
      "sources": [
        1
      ],
      "sourceIds": [
        "light-2020"
      ]
    },
    {
      "heading": "Other studies ask a different question",
      "text": "A study across states using 1990–2014 records found little support for undocumented immigration increasing violence. A neighborhood study using 2010–2018 records found less property crime, no clear overall change in violent crime and more robberies. Those community totals do not tell us the immigration status of the people committing crimes.",
      "sources": [
        2,
        3
      ],
      "sourceIds": [
        "light-miller-2018",
        "kubrin-2026"
      ]
    },
    {
      "heading": "Why the figures are disputed",
      "text": "Texas sometimes identifies someone’s immigration status later, including in prison. Analysts disagree about how to handle that and how to estimate the number of undocumented residents. We have not independently checked the individual records to settle those disagreements. That uncertainty belongs alongside the main study finding.",
      "sources": [
        1,
        4,
        5,
        6
      ],
      "sourceIds": [
        "light-2020",
        "texas-dps",
        "cis-texas-2022",
        "cato-texas-2024"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "takeaway": "The Texas study found lower arrest rates among undocumented residents. Keep the state, years and type of record in view.",
  "limits": [
    "Texas in 2012–2018 cannot give a precise answer about the whole country or newer arrivals.",
    "People born abroad, noncitizens, asylum seekers and undocumented residents are different groups.",
    "Lower rates do not mean no crime, dismiss victims or establish an individual’s innocence."
  ],
  "contextTitle": "Why a count is not a rate",
  "contextIntro": "A rate compares a count with the number of people it comes from, over a stated period.",
  "detail": "For example, twice as many arrests in a group twice as large can mean the same arrest rate. That is an illustration, not this study’s result. Counts across many years cannot be divided by one year’s population to produce an annual risk. Uncertain immigration-status records and population estimates affect the Texas comparison. Jobs and public costs need separate evidence.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "light-2020",
      "revision": "research-2026-10-06",
      "title": "Comparing crime rates between undocumented immigrants, legal immigrants, and native-born US citizens, 2020",
      "publisher": "PNAS",
      "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7768760/",
      "type": "Peer-reviewed administrative-data study",
      "access": "Full paper assessed in dossier",
      "limit": "Texas 2012–2018; arrest charges, status identification and estimated denominators.",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06",
      "locale": "en",
      "geographicCoverage": {
        "kind": "undetermined",
        "countryCodes": [],
        "jurisdictionCodes": [],
        "note": "Source-specific coverage is described in access/limits; final applicability review pending."
      },
      "readerTitle": "Texas arrests by immigration status, 2012–2018",
      "readerAccess": "We could read the full paper.",
      "readerLimit": "It counts arrest charges, not proven offenses or necessarily different people. Immigration-status records and estimated group sizes affect the rates.",
      "supports": [
        "What the Texas study compared",
        "Why the figures are disputed"
      ],
      "limitationsInternal": [
        "Full paper assessed in dossier",
        "Texas 2012–2018; arrest charges, status identification and estimated denominators."
      ],
      "limitationsPublic": [
        "It counts arrest charges, not proven offenses or necessarily different people. Immigration-status records and estimated group sizes affect the rates."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "light-miller-2018",
      "revision": "research-2026-10-06",
      "title": "Does undocumented immigration increase violent crime?",
      "publisher": "Criminology, 2018",
      "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6241529/",
      "type": "State-level longitudinal study",
      "access": "Methods/limitations assessed in dossier",
      "limit": "1990–2014; area associations do not identify offenders' status.",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06",
      "locale": "en",
      "geographicCoverage": {
        "kind": "undetermined",
        "countryCodes": [],
        "jurisdictionCodes": [],
        "note": "Source-specific coverage is described in access/limits; final applicability review pending."
      },
      "readerTitle": "Undocumented immigration and state-level violent crime",
      "readerAccess": "We checked the study’s methods and limitations.",
      "readerLimit": "It covers 1990–2014. State totals do not identify the immigration status of people who committed crimes.",
      "supports": [
        "Other studies ask a different question"
      ],
      "limitationsInternal": [
        "Methods/limitations assessed in dossier",
        "1990–2014; area associations do not identify offenders' status."
      ],
      "limitationsPublic": [
        "It covers 1990–2014. State totals do not identify the immigration status of people who committed crimes."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "kubrin-2026",
      "revision": "research-2026-10-06",
      "title": "Undocumented immigration and neighborhood crime",
      "publisher": "Journal of Urban Affairs, 2026",
      "url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2gs6z9tc",
      "type": "Neighborhood observational study",
      "access": "Research assessed; deeper imputation validation pending",
      "limit": "2010–2018 data; urban coverage; robbery findings differ from overall violence.",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06",
      "locale": "en",
      "geographicCoverage": {
        "kind": "undetermined",
        "countryCodes": [],
        "jurisdictionCodes": [],
        "note": "Source-specific coverage is described in access/limits; final applicability review pending."
      },
      "readerTitle": "Undocumented immigration and neighborhood crime",
      "readerAccess": "We reviewed the study, but have not fully checked how missing information was estimated.",
      "readerLimit": "The records cover 2010–2018 in urban areas. Robbery results differ from the result for overall violent crime.",
      "supports": [
        "Other studies ask a different question"
      ],
      "limitationsInternal": [
        "Research assessed; deeper imputation validation pending",
        "2010–2018 data; urban coverage; robbery findings differ from overall violence."
      ],
      "limitationsPublic": [
        "The records cover 2010–2018 in urban areas. Robbery results differ from the result for overall violent crime."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "texas-dps",
      "revision": "research-2026-10-06",
      "title": "Texas criminal illegal noncitizen data",
      "publisher": "Texas Department of Public Safety",
      "url": "https://www.dps.texas.gov/section/crime-records/texas-criminal-illegal-noncitizen-data",
      "type": "Administrative counts and measurement notes",
      "access": "Source warnings assessed in dossier",
      "limit": "Changing counts and delayed identification are not automatically comparable per-capita rates.",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06",
      "locale": "en",
      "geographicCoverage": {
        "kind": "undetermined",
        "countryCodes": [],
        "jurisdictionCodes": [],
        "note": "Source-specific coverage is described in access/limits; final applicability review pending."
      },
      "readerTitle": "Texas arrest counts and how status is identified",
      "readerAccess": "We checked the department’s warnings about interpreting its counts.",
      "readerLimit": "Status can be identified later. Changing totals cannot automatically be compared as annual arrest rates.",
      "supports": [
        "Why the figures are disputed"
      ],
      "limitationsInternal": [
        "Source warnings assessed in dossier",
        "Changing counts and delayed identification are not automatically comparable per-capita rates."
      ],
      "limitationsPublic": [
        "Status can be identified later. Changing totals cannot automatically be compared as annual arrest rates."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cis-texas-2022",
      "revision": "research-2026-10-06",
      "title": "Texas crime-data classification critique",
      "publisher": "Center for Immigration Studies, October 2022",
      "url": "https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2022-10/texas-crime.pdf",
      "type": "Policy-organization analysis",
      "access": "Measurement critique assessed in dossier",
      "limit": "Late status identification is a genuine concern; raw person-level reconciliation not replicated.",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06",
      "locale": "en",
      "geographicCoverage": {
        "kind": "undetermined",
        "countryCodes": [],
        "jurisdictionCodes": [],
        "note": "Source-specific coverage is described in access/limits; final applicability review pending."
      },
      "readerTitle": "A criticism of how Texas classifies immigration status",
      "readerAccess": "We checked the criticism about measurement.",
      "readerLimit": "Late identification is a genuine concern. We have not checked the disputed classifications against the original individual records.",
      "supports": [
        "Why the figures are disputed"
      ],
      "limitationsInternal": [
        "Measurement critique assessed in dossier",
        "Late status identification is a genuine concern; raw person-level reconciliation not replicated."
      ],
      "limitationsPublic": [
        "Late identification is a genuine concern. We have not checked the disputed classifications against the original individual records."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cato-texas-2024",
      "revision": "research-2026-10-06",
      "title": "Illegal immigrant murderers in Texas, 2013–2022",
      "publisher": "Cato Institute, June 2024",
      "url": "https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/illegal-immigrant-murderers-texas-2013-2022",
      "type": "Policy-organization analysis",
      "access": "Full analysis assessed in dossier",
      "limit": "Homicide convictions, not the same offense/period as PNAS; classification and denominator assumptions remain.",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-10-06",
      "locale": "en",
      "geographicCoverage": {
        "kind": "undetermined",
        "countryCodes": [],
        "jurisdictionCodes": [],
        "note": "Source-specific coverage is described in access/limits; final applicability review pending."
      },
      "readerTitle": "A separate analysis of Texas homicide convictions",
      "readerAccess": "We could read the full analysis.",
      "readerLimit": "It counts homicide convictions, using different offenses and years from the main arrest study. It also relies on assumptions about status and population sizes.",
      "supports": [
        "Why the figures are disputed"
      ],
      "limitationsInternal": [
        "Full analysis assessed in dossier",
        "Homicide convictions, not the same offense/period as PNAS; classification and denominator assumptions remain."
      ],
      "limitationsPublic": [
        "It counts homicide convictions, using different offenses and years from the main arrest study. It also relies on assumptions about status and population sizes."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "dossier": "immigration_evidence.md",
  "reviewNeeds": "Editorial/source review pending. No chart computed or raw-data replication; competing Texas analyses remain unresolved.",
  "updateTriggers": "Status-identification revisions, new direct-status series, post-2021 cohort research, replication or source corrections.",
  "related": [
    {
      "slug": "immigration",
      "label": "Immigration and community crime: the broader evidence"
    },
    {
      "slug": "religion-crime",
      "label": "Religion, nationality and crime: keep the categories separate"
    }
  ],
  "kind": "question",
  "parent": {
    "slug": "immigration",
    "label": "Immigration and community crime",
    "shortLabel": "Immigration",
    "overviewName": "immigration"
  },
  "legacyPath": "/topics/immigration/",
  "derivedFrom": {
    "claimId": "texas-undocumented-arrests",
    "revision": "draft-1",
    "note": "Original historical Texas claim retained under its own question route; the broader overview has a new claim identity."
  },
  "copyReviewedAt": "2026-10-07",
  "readerCopyEdition": "plain-language-1",
  "citationDesignEdition": "publication-first-1",
  "assetDesignEdition": "space-first-1",
  "headline": {
    "text": "In Texas, undocumented immigrants had lower felony arrest rates than US-born citizens, 2012–2018.",
    "revision": "draft-3",
    "status": "draft",
    "sourceMessageId": null
  },
  "language": "en",
  "jurisdiction": {
    "kind": "jurisdiction",
    "countryCodes": [
      "US"
    ],
    "jurisdictionCodes": [
      "US-TX"
    ],
    "note": "Historical Texas direct-status comparison, not nationwide 2026 offending."
  },
  "claimScope": "The study counted felony arrest charges—charges for serious crimes. An arrest is not proof of guilt, and one person can have more than one charge.",
  "research": {
    "dossierRef": "docs/research/immigration_evidence.md",
    "reviewedAt": "2026-10-06",
    "reviewDue": "Status-identification revisions, new direct-status series, post-2021 cohort research, replication or source corrections.",
    "contraryEvidenceConsidered": [],
    "status": "research draft; editorial/context review separate"
  },
  "status": "researched draft preview",
  "realWorldClaimReviewed": false,
  "clinicalEditorialApproved": false
}